Intro
I will be doing predicted lineups for the Japanese J1 League for each GW. These lineups will be made from information I gather from:
Press conferences/interviews with the manager
Training information
Suspension lists
Lineups from last year if same manager
I will be updating the blog as and when I get information and giving a % for my confidence the player will start.
I know from general experience with monitoring lineups across all leagues on sorare, information can drop right up to the deadline (eg a positive corona case of a player a few hours before the deadline). So I will be in general updating the lineup prediction the day after the GW opens and then updating it again the day of the deadline.
I will also be providing betting odds where available, such as:
% chance of win
I am not expecting to be anywhere near perfect with these lineups and hope to improve as time goes on. The main aim is to illustrate where I see risk and what kind of opportunities there are each GW.
Player Injuries
I have made a new page on the site that has all known player injuries. I can be found here
GW 254 Fixtures
Shimizu vs Kobe
Shimizu predicted Lineup
Odds
Win - 35.5%
Most likely to play - Gonda, Tatsuta, Suzuki
Combos - Gonda & Suzuki
Main set Piece taker -
Pens -
COVID Cases/Injury - Santos, Silvano and Matsuoka out for 2-3 weeks. Valdo (back in training)
Notes
From the training pictures we have seen a few players that have been missing:
Matsuoka
Valdo
Carlinhos Junior
Nishizawa was also reported to have been training though I couldn't find a picture of this.
It is difficult to know if they are match fit so I havent included them in the starting lineup however it is certainly good news for holders as all 34will likely be starters and should be back after the international break. Nishizawa was also reported to have been training though I couldn't find a picture of this
It was also confirmed that new striker Se-hun Oh has joined up with the squad and he will be ready to start after the international break too
Vissel Kobe Predicted Lineup
Odds
Win - 40%
Most likely to play - Sakai, Iikura
Combos - Yamaguchi + Iniesta
Main set Piece taker - Iniesta 2) Hatsuse
Pens - Iniesta
COVID Cases -
Injury - Muto ( 8-10 weeks), Samper (stretchered off, not seen in training), Goke (TBC - not seen in training and not in squad last game)
Notes
Vissel came from behind on Tuesday night to win 4-3 in extra time against Melbourne Victory and claim a coveted spot in the ACL group stage giving them another 6 games that will be scored on Sorare.
The game definitely took a lot out of the squad including a nasty looking injury for Samper. Though the injury hasnt been diagnosed yet, I cant see him playing this weekend.
Outside this, the game is a huge rotation risk for a number of players including Iniesta. I havent seen him or alot of the players in training which I assume is to give them a break after the ACL game. This means, I can see alot of the players who were subs in the previous game coming in, including Yuruki, Hatsuse, Makino and Ogihara.
This is not a lineup im personally confident with so will likely stack my players in a less important division (Kikuchi, Yamaguchi and Sakai). Both Yamaguchi and Sakai dont generally get rotated
Prediction
Before the season started, I would see this as a comfortable win for Kobe. However, with their stuttering start to the season and injuries mounting up, I agree with the bookies outlook and see this being a very close game.
Shimizu have a number of players returning from injuries and if any of them are ready to play this game it could make a huge difference to the outcome of the game.
Overall, I can see this ending as low scoring draw.
Shimizu 1-1 Kobe
Kyoto vs FC Tokyo
Kyoto Predicted Lineup
Odds
Win - 27%
Most likely to play -Kaneko, Mendes, Utaka
Combos -Matsuda & Utaka
Main set Piece taker - Matsuda
Pens - Utaka
COVID Cases -
Suspension - Asada
Injuries -
Notes
Kamifukumoto should return in nets from his suspension. As discussed here a few times, Kyoto have 3 very decent keepers and Wakahara or Wood or especially have a shot to make the number 1 spot.
Asada is suspended for this game and Ogiwara is the natural replacement
FC Tokyo Predicted Lineup
Odds
Win - 44%
Most likely to play - Slowik,, Morishige, Higashi, Konno, Matsuki, Oliveira
Combos - Slowik & Morishige
Main set Piece taker - Leandro & Ogawa
Pens - Leandro
COVID Cases -
Injuries - Leandro
Suspensions -
Notes
Aoki returns from suspension and should partner up with Abe in midfield.
Nagatomo came on at half time and played as RB so could well be pushing for a spot here. It could see Ogawa move over to the right side as Nagatomo is naturally a left sided player.
Trevisan only last 45 mins last week and played in the league cup so feel like he is not fully fit yet to start.
I see it being the same attack as last week when FC Tokyo impressed me in their 2-1 win against Hiroshima.
Prediction
Both teams have played a lot better than I expected preseason, especially FC Tokyo who have been much more fluid compared to last year.
I see this being a comfortable victory for FC Tokyo.
Kyoto 1-3 FC Tokyo
Gamba Osaka vs Fukuoka
Gamba Osaka Predicted Lineup
You can see a preview of the game from a Gamba fan here
Odds
Win - 33%
Most likely to play - Ishikawa, Shoji, Kurata, Onose, Patric, Yamamoto
Combos - Shoji + Ishikawa
Main set Piece taker - Yamamoto
Pens - Patric
COVID Cases - none reported
Injuries - Higashiguchi, Fujiharu, Usami - out for 6 months +
Suspension -
Notes
Higashiguchi had surgery last week on his knee and will be out for at least 3 months.
Shoji was surprisingly missing last week but was seen in full training this week so should return at the back. Perira scored in the last game and could be pushing for a start though I have kept him out for the time being as not sure of the managers preference with him and what his fitness levels are at.
Dawhan and Kown Kyung Won joined up with the squad this week and are training well though I feel it would make sense to put them into the team after the upcoming international break.
Fukuoka predicted Lineup
Odds
Win - 40%
Most likely to play - Murakami, Mae,Lukian, Shichi
Combos - Grolli & Murakami
Main set Piece taker - Yamagishi
Pens - Lukian
COVID Cases -
Injuries - Maejima,
Notes
Grolli was surprisingly missing last game but he and Nara awere both seen in training this week. For Sorare, as always, I am cautious and wouldnt risk them until I see they are back playing.
Defensively Fukuoka have been very solid however its in attack they are having major issues - only scoring 1 goal in 4 games. There may well be changes in this game with players such as Croux, Tanaka and Delgado potentially coming in.
Maejima went off injured 2 games ago and unlikely to play here unless we get an update on him.
Match Prediction
Games involving Fukuoka tend to be very low scoring affairs and I can see this being similar.
Overall, I can see Gamba winning this in a tight affair where there will be few goal scoring opportunities for either side.
Gamba Osaka 1-0 Fukuoka
Hiroshima vs Kawasaki Frontale
Hiroshima Predicted Lineup
Odds
Win - 28%
Most likely to play - Hayashi, Sasaki, Araki, Nogami
Combos - Hayashi + Sasaski
COVID Cases - none reported
Injuries -
Suspension -
Notes
Hiroshima have been relatively consist ant with their team lineups this season so far & I see the this continuing especially in defence.
I have seen talk of Aoyama or Nagai pushing for a spot instead of Santos and I can understand why as Santos has been very average so far this season.
Ezequiel has been missing from recent squads but played a training game last week so imagine he is working up his fitness levels and this game will be too soon for him
Frontale Predicted Lineup
Odds
Win - 46.5%
Most likely to play - Taniguchi, Yamane, Sung Ryong, Yamamura
Combos - Damiao, Yamane/
Main set Piece taker - Wakizaka/Ienaga
Pens - Damiao/Ienaga
COVID Cases -
Suspensions - Chanthip
Injuries - Jesiel (ACL, expected back May but TBC), Kurumaya( Shoulder injury, back mid April)
Notes
Noborizato has returned to full training and I can see him starting here - though its not for certain as Sasaki has done very well at left back whilst covering this spot
Chanthip is suspended and I can see Oshima being the more natural replacement for him. Otherwise I see the same team playing that beat Nagoya last week
Match Prediction
Frontale have been alot less expansive/exciting football compared to last year and have shown plenty of vulnerabilities. However, they keep finding ways to win and now that the schedule is allowing more rest between games, I can see them winning this
Hiroshima 1-3 Frontale
Kashima vs Shonan
Kashima Antlers Predicted Lineup
Odds
Win - 60%
Most likely to play - Pituca, Higuchi, Kwon, Suzuki, Misao, Ueda
Combos - Araki & Ueda/Suzuki
Main set Piece taker - Araki/Higuchi
Pens - Suzuki
COVID Cases - 4
Notes
Antlers have 4 covid cases that have been reported. I suspect Min Tae is one of them as he was missing from the squad in the league cup game.
Teams dont announce who the covid cases are so I have looked at training photos to see who is present. This will not be a 100% perfect method but I hope it helps.
I have seen Misao, Suzuki, Ueda, Araki, Sun Tae, Anzai, Pituca, Sekigawa,Higuchi in training in the last 2 days. Some photos below:
Tsunemoto & Doi were all in the squad or played in the league cup so I have considered them available for this game too. Bueno played in the cup game but also was unimpressive making a series of blunders as Antlers drew 3-3 with J2 team Oita.
Shonan predicted Lineup
Odds
Win - 19%
Most likely to play - Tani, Yonemoto, Tanaka
Combos - Tani and Tanaka
Main set Piece taker -Barada, Yonemoto
Pens -
COVID Cases - none reported
Injuries - Hata out for 7 weeks, Wellington (TBC, went off on stretcher last game)
Suspension -
Notes
Tariq was missing from the squad last game so I cant see him starting here as not seen any updates on him. Wellington went off on a stretcher last game and is a doubt for the game here and I see Segawa replacing him
Match Prediction
Despite the covid cases and some uncertainty around the team (which is v frustrating for sorare!) I can see Kashima being too strong for Shonan and winning this one comfortably.
Kashima 2-o Shonan
Urawa vs Iwata
Urawa Reds Predicted Lineup
Odds
Win - 56%
Most likely to play - Nishikawa, Ito, Iwao, Akimoto, Sakai
Combos - Nishikawa and Iwananmi
Main set Piece taker - Esaka/Iwao
Pens - Esaka/Iwao
COVID Cases -
Suspensions -
Notes
Urawa were bitterly disappointing in their 1-0 loss to Sagan Tosu last week and the team lacked patience and structure which played into their opponents hands. Looking at training photos, Karlsson looks up to speed and I can see him starting. I have read Junker has been suffering from a chronic injury hence his lack of game time. He tweeted this week saying he was in "100% condition" so I tentatively see him starting here (something I have been wanting for weeks to be honest!)
Ohata went off with an injury scare but was seen in training yesterday, however it will be a toss up between him and Mawatari. There has also been some talk of Iwanami getting and rest and Inukai coming, but I have seen this before so am sticking with Iwanami starting.
Matsuo is also back training and I see him making an appearance from the bench in this one
Iwata predicted Lineup
Odds
Win - 21%
Most likely to play - Miura, Ohi, Endo, Matsumoto, Sugimoto
Combos - Endo & Sugimoto
Main set Piece taker - Endo
Pens - Sugimoto
COVID Cases/Injury
Suspension-
Notes
Iwata have been relatively consistent with their player picks this year and I don't see a very similar team to last week starting again this week
Match Prediction
Urawa are a team that I have personally expected alot more from this season and have predicted most of their results incorrectly! I will stick to my confidence with them, especially if Junker and Karlsson start this one.
I also feel at home, Urawa play more confidently so see this as a comfortable win for them