To continue on from the previous posts on Defenders (here) and Midfielders (here), I will be looking at what I consider the most difficult position (outside keeper of course!) to fill.
As a reminder, the main areas I look at are:
Scoring -average, high point, DNPs (are they starting regularly)
Team - strength, league , upcoming fixtures, season length
Price - current price, last auction price,
I often find with forwards it is all or nothing, in that they need to score or get an assist to help my team in a meaningful way. This is very different to midfielders and defenders who can easily get 60+ points without a clean sheet or scoring/assisting. There are notable exceptions, for example Usami.
Penalty takers can be very important for decisive points. This can be of course any position, but they are usually forward players. One example of a player I don't particularly like when watching in real life but scored regularly from the penalty spot is Anderson Lopes when at Sapporo. I always suggest to friends, to find out who the set pieces are for each team when scouting. I plan to do more detailed posts on this soon here.
Buying players - Sorare interface:
When looking for players to buy, it is only natural to go onto the site and look at auctions. But what do the figures next to the players represent and what should we be mindful of.
Lets look at Dembeles card below for an example:
The 60 in the green circle does look very appealing! But what exactly does it show? It is actually the last 5 game average score of the player. This is a good indicator but I feel that too much emphasis is placed on in, particularly as it is so prominently positioned on the site.
If we look at the L15 (last 15 games) and L40 averages, we can see a different picture:
This is not to say Dembele is bad buy, its more to show one of the dangers when analysing buys. Other aspects I look at are the leagues, there is alot of cheaper yet similar scoring players in the less popular league (J or K league) but this of course requires more research if you are not familiar with them. I hope to provide more in depth analysis on this in later posts.
Budget range
Name: Hiroshi Kiyotake (limited card is forward)
Team: Cerezo Osaka (J1 League)
League: J- League
Price: 0.025 ETH
Positives
Plays as a forward or high up
Takes set pieces (corners, free kicks) on occasion
Consistent scorer with 34% of scores > 60 points
Risks
Asia season is ending in early December
Returning from injury, may be rusty
Age - although i think this in general is overstated and he will be fine for at least 2 more seasons imo
Other players to check:
Mid range
Name: Marcos Junior
Team: Yokohama F. Marinos
League: J league
Price: 0.125 ETH
Positives
Set piece taker including pens
Play for a high ranking team who has extra fixtures with the ACL
Consistant and reliable scorer
Long contract which is a rarity in the J league & gives relative security of him not leaving
Risks
Rotation risk - there is a wealth of forward options and M.Junior will start on the bench on occasion. However, I feel he is one of the main options for the team and can do damage off the bench.
Asia season is ending in early December
Other players to check: Alan Pulido, Thomas Henry, Julio Furch
Top range
Name: Eran Zahavi
Team: PSV Eindhoven
League: Eredivisie
Price: 0.2 ETH
Positives
Takes set pieces
14 goals + assists last season
Utility - PSV are in the europa league & Zahavi starts for Israel
Good peak scores
Risks
Age - 34, so only potentially has a couple of season left
Has been a little inconstant this season, though a rare own goal does skew his scores
Has started 8/9 games so far, but there may well be rotation risk as the season goes one
Other players to check:
For full disclosure, I own M.Junior and Kiyotake (SR) though am not looking to sell.
As we can see, forwards are hard to get and usually you need to compromise on an area to get one (eg age, upcoming season break). I still believe its better to get a starter over a more budget risk as from experience, that can just lead to frustration of DNPs. I also dont mind holding players aged 30-35 who score consistently. I find this usually the most value area to hit eth thresholds, however it is of course to look at things case by case.
There may well be opportunities to buy forwards when seasons come to a close, its important to realise with the winter world cup I expect a lot of leagues (argentine, J league etc) to start earlier than normal so keep an eye open on that. On the reverse side, its also important to remember a lot of leagues have winter breaks, eg austria, russia and to a less extent but still a break, the Bundesliga.